payment-ready until 2026-08-20
Per-market liquidity authenticity + UMA resolution-risk for Polymarket prediction markets, sold to AI trading agents via x402 ($0.20/call, USDC on Base). Returns whether apparent volume is broad/organic or concentrated/manufactured (HHI, effective traders, book cross-check, on-chain counterparties) AND the UMA resolution-risk on two axes: how often a category disputes on UMA x when disputed, how often the result FLIPS the original proposal vs just confirms, plus whether the criterion is objective (checkable) or subjective. Dispute-rate and flip-rate often invert by category - a two-axis read no other tool gives. Fact/base-rate, never a wash verdict nor per-market prediction. Also two /market-authenticity/{conditionId} and /x402-authenticity/{payTo} parameterized endpoints (see /openapi.json).
Pay from $0.05 per request in USDC on Base, settled onchain via the x402 protocol, no signup, no API key needed.
first settlement 2026-07-10 · $2.35 all-time · settled via coinbase
ASSESSMENT
updated 4h agoEvidence-backed signals, not a single score. Click any chip for the proof. Measured values stay read-only; unknown is honest.
reliability 92.7%
- uptime 24h
- 100%
- uptime 7d
- 100%
- uptime 30d
- 92.7%
- uptime 90d
- 93.2%
- response p95
- 1640ms
- avg response
- 915ms
- total checks
- 2,736
Measured on the unpaid 402 handshake, not the paid call. A service can 402 correctly and still fail after payment.
compliance A (14/14)
14 of 14 x402 conformance checks pass. Full checklist below.
price $0.05 (p84 in Data)
- price (min)
- $0.05
- category percentile (min)
- p84 in Data
- endpoints / prices
- 3 / 1
- model
- flat
- stability
- 0%
risk clean
No deterministic risk flag. Risk fires only on an exact blocklist match, or a reserved-brand name with a mismatched verified payTo. Never from low uptime, a high price, or a model guess.
- domain age
- -
- registrar
- -
- hosting
- custom
- domain created
- ---
Identity facts, not a risk score.
traction $2.15 30d · 3 buyers
- volume 30d
- $2.15
- buyers 30d
- 3
- settlements 30d
- 25
- first settlement
- 2026-07-10
- last settlement
- 2026-08-13
- top buyer share
- 60% of 30d volume
- trend 7d vs 30d
- 1.89x the 30d daily rate
- networks
- eip155:8453
- volume all-time
- $2.35
- settlements all-time
- 26
- median settlement 30d
- $0.05
- max settlement 30d
- $0.20
- settled via
- coinbase ($2.15, 25 tx)
Conservative undercount: only USDC settlements via facilitators we measure are counted. A measured floor, not an estimate.
Top buyer share is a concentration signal, not part of the ranking score.
CHANGES
2 events, detecting since 2026-07-24Payout, price, and schema changes detected on this service's x402 wire. A payout rotation at an unchanged price shows up here even when nothing else moves. Full feed at /changes.
changes schema changed 17h ago (2 since 2026-07-24)
schema changed · 17h ago
schema removed GET /resolution-risk exact eip155:8453 0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913 USDC 2 300 {"name":"USD Coin","version":"2"}
schema removed GET /screener exact eip155:8453 0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913 USDC 2 300 {"name":"USD Coin","version":"2"}
schema removed GET /x402-market exact eip155:8453 0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913 USDC 2 300 {"name":"USD Coin","version":"2"}
schema added GET /resolution-risk exact eip155:8453 0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913 USDC 2 300 {"iconUrl":"https://polym.uk/favicon.svg","name":"USD Coin","version":"2"}
schema added GET /screener exact eip155:8453 0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913 USDC 2 300 {"iconUrl":"https://polym.uk/favicon.svg","name":"USD Coin","version":"2"}
schema added GET /x402-market exact eip155:8453 0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913 USDC 2 300 {"iconUrl":"https://x402intel.uk/favicon.svg","name":"USD Coin","version":"2"}
price changed · 45h ago
GET /resolution-risk · eip155:8453 · USDC: 200000 → 50000
GET /screener · eip155:8453 · USDC: 200000 → 50000
GET /x402-market · eip155:8453 · USDC: 200000 → 50000
Amounts are on-wire atomic units in the named asset.
WHAT IT DOES
ai-derivedNo AI synthesis has been produced for this service yet.
ENDPOINTS
| METHOD | PATH | DESCRIPTION | PRICE | NETWORK | ASSET | 402 CHANNEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GET | /resolution-risk | UMA resolution-risk landscape by category: dispute base-rate × flip rate (when disputed, does it reverse?) + criterion clarity. Fact/base-rate, not prediction. | $0.05 | Base | USDC | header |
| GET | /screener | Top Polymarket markets ranked by liquidity-authenticity bucket (fact, per window) | $0.05 | Base | USDC | header |
| GET | /x402-market | The honest state of the x402 market: real value-matched size vs the hype | $0.05 | Base | USDC | header |
REQUEST / RESPONSE EXAMPLE
An unpaid request to GET /resolution-risk returns HTTP 402 with the payment terms. Settle onchain via your facilitator, then retry with the X-Payment header.
curl -i 'https://api.x402intel.uk/resolution-risk'
// 402 response (captured by monitor) · 3 payloads · click to expand
[
{
"error": "Payment required",
"accepts": [
{
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"iconUrl": "https://polym.uk/favicon.svg",
"version": "2"
},
"payTo": "0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3",
"amount": "50000",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "eip155:8453",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
}
],
"resource": {
"url": "https://api.polym.uk/screener",
"tags": [
"polymarket",
"prediction-markets",
"screener",
"order-flow",
"base"
],
"iconUrl": "https://polym.uk/favicon.svg",
"mimeType": "application/json",
"description": "Ranked Polymarket market-flow screener with factual concentration and liquidity-compatibility fields for the observed window.",
"serviceName": "Polymarket Intelligence API"
},
"extensions": {
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"type": "http",
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
"top": 20
}
},
"output": {
"type": "json",
"example": {
"asOf": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z",
"caveats": [
"STATIC CONTRACT SAMPLE ONLY: this payload is not live market intelligence.",
"Paid screener responses describe the observed materialized window and retain their own caveats."
],
"markets": [
{
"title": "Static contract sample — not a live Polymarket market",
"bucket": "moderate",
"resolution": {
"category": "Example",
"categoryFlipRatePct": null,
"subjectiveCriterion": false,
"categoryDisputeRatePct": 4.2
},
"conditionId": "0x1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111",
"marketClosed": false,
"topTraderShare": 0.42,
"effectiveTraders": 7,
"apparentVolumeUsd": 12345.67,
"apparentVsBookFlag": false
}
],
"decomposed": 40,
"windowHours": 24,
"observedMarkets": 128
}
}
},
"schema": {
"type": "object",
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"required": [
"input"
],
"properties": {
"input": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string",
"const": "http"
},
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"queryParams": {
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"top": {
"type": "integer",
"default": 20,
"maximum": 40,
"minimum": 1
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"output": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string"
},
"example": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"asOf",
"windowHours",
"observedMarkets",
"decomposed",
"markets",
"caveats"
],
"properties": {
"asOf": {
"type": "string",
"format": "date-time"
},
"caveats": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"markets": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"conditionId",
"title",
"bucket",
"apparentVolumeUsd",
"topTraderShare",
"effectiveTraders",
"apparentVsBookFlag",
"marketClosed",
"resolution"
],
"properties": {
"title": {
"type": "string",
"description": "Observed Polymarket market title."
},
"bucket": {
"enum": [
"unranked",
"structurally-thin",
"concentrated",
"moderate",
"broad"
],
"type": "string",
"description": "Descriptive taker-flow structure bucket, not a fraud verdict."
},
"resolution": {
"type": [
"object",
"null"
],
"required": [
"category",
"categoryDisputeRatePct",
"categoryFlipRatePct",
"subjectiveCriterion"
],
"properties": {
"category": {
"type": "string",
"description": "Heuristic category inferred from the market title."
},
"categoryFlipRatePct": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
],
"maximum": 100,
"minimum": 0
},
"subjectiveCriterion": {
"type": "boolean",
"description": "True when the resolution criterion is classified as subjective."
},
"categoryDisputeRatePct": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
],
"maximum": 100,
"minimum": 0
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"conditionId": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^0x[0-9a-fA-F]{64}$",
"description": "Polymarket condition ID."
},
"marketClosed": {
"type": [
"boolean",
"null"
],
"description": "Whether the market was closed in the artifact."
},
"topTraderShare": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0,
"description": "Share of observed taker volume attributed to the top trader."
},
"effectiveTraders": {
"type": "integer",
"minimum": 0,
"description": "HHI-derived effective trader count for the observed taker flow."
},
"apparentVolumeUsd": {
"type": "number",
"minimum": 0,
"description": "Observed taker-side volume in the materialized window, in USD."
},
"apparentVsBookFlag": {
"type": [
"boolean",
"null"
],
"description": "Whether observed volume is structurally inconsistent with available book liquidity."
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}
},
"decomposed": {
"type": "integer",
"minimum": 0
},
"windowHours": {
"type": "number",
"minimum": 0
},
"observedMarkets": {
"type": "integer",
"minimum": 0
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}
}
}
}
}
}
},
"x402Version": 2
},
{
"error": "Payment required",
"accepts": [
{
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"iconUrl": "https://x402intel.uk/favicon.svg",
"version": "2"
},
"payTo": "0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3",
"amount": "50000",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "eip155:8453",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
}
],
"resource": {
"url": "https://api.x402intel.uk/x402-market",
"tags": [
"x402",
"market-intelligence",
"onchain-analytics",
"usdc",
"base"
],
"iconUrl": "https://x402intel.uk/favicon.svg",
"mimeType": "application/json",
"description": "x402 market intelligence with current catalog-attributed USDC flow, address-level demand signals and separately labeled value-matched history. Attribution is not exclusive protocol-intent proof.",
"serviceName": "x402 Intelligence API"
},
"extensions": {
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"type": "http",
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {}
},
"output": {
"type": "json",
"example": {
"demand": {
"totalBuyers": 0
},
"market": {
"sellersOnBase": 0,
"sellersWithRealActivity": 0
},
"generatedAt": "2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z"
}
}
},
"schema": {
"type": "object",
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"required": [
"input"
],
"properties": {
"input": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string",
"const": "http"
},
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"queryParams": {
"type": "object",
"properties": {},
"additionalProperties": false
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"output": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string"
},
"example": {
"type": "object",
"properties": {},
"additionalProperties": true
}
}
}
}
}
}
},
"x402Version": 2
},
{
"error": "Payment required",
"accepts": [
{
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"iconUrl": "https://polym.uk/favicon.svg",
"version": "2"
},
"payTo": "0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3",
"amount": "50000",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "eip155:8453",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
}
],
"resource": {
"url": "https://api.polym.uk/resolution-risk",
"tags": [
"polymarket",
"prediction-markets",
"uma-resolution",
"base-rates",
"base"
],
"iconUrl": "https://polym.uk/favicon.svg",
"mimeType": "application/json",
"description": "UMA resolution dispute and flip base rates by category and criterion clarity; descriptive historical compatibility, not a market-specific forecast.",
"serviceName": "Polymarket Intelligence API"
},
"extensions": {
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"type": "http",
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {}
},
"output": {
"type": "json",
"example": {
"asOf": "2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z",
"caveats": [
"Example only: live responses retain artifact-specific caveats and timestamps."
],
"clarity": {
"checkable": {
"disputeRatePct": 1.2,
"marketsScanned": 100
},
"subjective": {
"disputeRatePct": 4.2,
"marketsScanned": 20
}
},
"flipAsOf": null,
"howToRead": "Historical category base rates describe resolution compatibility; they are not a forecast for an individual market.",
"byCategory": [
{
"category": "Example",
"elevated": true,
"flipRatePct": null,
"lockupHoursPerMarket": null,
"lockupHoursIfDisputed": null,
"flipInsufficientSample": true,
"disputeRatePctHighVolume": 4.2,
"disputeInsufficientSample": false,
"disputeRatePctChronological": null
}
],
"flipOverall": null,
"dataDegraded": false,
"elevatedRiskCategories": [
"Example"
]
}
}
},
"schema": {
"type": "object",
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"required": [
"input"
],
"properties": {
"input": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string",
"const": "http"
},
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"queryParams": {
"type": "object",
"properties": {},
"additionalProperties": false
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"output": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string"
},
"example": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"asOf",
"flipAsOf",
"dataDegraded",
"elevatedRiskCategories",
"byCategory",
"clarity",
"flipOverall",
"howToRead",
"caveats"
],
"properties": {
"asOf": {
"type": "string",
"format": "date-time"
},
"caveats": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"clarity": {
"type": [
"object",
"null"
],
"required": [
"checkable",
"subjective"
],
"properties": {
"checkable": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"marketsScanned",
"disputeRatePct"
],
"properties": {
"disputeRatePct": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 100,
"minimum": 0
},
"marketsScanned": {
"type": "integer",
"minimum": 0
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"subjective": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"marketsScanned",
"disputeRatePct"
],
"properties": {
"disputeRatePct": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 100,
"minimum": 0
},
"marketsScanned": {
"type": "integer",
"minimum": 0
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"flipAsOf": {
"type": [
"string",
"null"
],
"format": "date-time"
},
"howToRead": {
"type": "string"
},
"byCategory": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"category",
"disputeRatePctHighVolume",
"disputeRatePctChronological",
"disputeInsufficientSample",
"elevated",
"lockupHoursPerMarket",
"lockupHoursIfDisputed",
"flipRatePct",
"flipInsufficientSample"
],
"properties": {
"category": {
"type": "string"
},
"elevated": {
"type": "boolean"
},
"flipRatePct": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
],
"maximum": 100,
"minimum": 0
},
"lockupHoursPerMarket": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
],
"minimum": 0
},
"lockupHoursIfDisputed": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
],
"minimum": 0
},
"flipInsufficientSample": {
"type": "boolean"
},
"disputeRatePctHighVolume": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 100,
"minimum": 0
},
"disputeInsufficientSample": {
"type": "boolean"
},
"disputeRatePctChronological": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
],
"maximum": 100,
"minimum": 0
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}
},
"flipOverall": {
"type": [
"object",
"null"
],
"required": [
"flipRatePct",
"disputedResolved"
],
"properties": {
"flipRatePct": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 100,
"minimum": 0
},
"disputedResolved": {
"type": "integer",
"minimum": 0
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"dataDegraded": {
"type": "boolean"
},
"elevatedRiskCategories": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "string"
}
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}
}
}
}
}
}
},
"x402Version": 2
}
] OVER TIME
All charts use the 30d selector; each series spans only the dates it has data for. Every series is also served as JSON at /api/v1/services/polymarket-liquidity-authenticity-uma-resolution-risk/price, /scores, /volume and /buyers. On-chain volume and distinct buyers are measured over the service's settlement address and are a conservative undercount (only settlements that reach a measured facilitator are counted). The on-chain series roll up hourly, so the latest day can be up to about an hour behind; distinct buyers are counted per payout address, so a service that settles to more than one address is an upper bound.
Median across 3 endpoints. Use the selector to isolate one.
checklist grew 11->14 on 2026-07-28; a step here is a metric change, not a regression
Measured site and economics pillars from the assessment history, so the latest value shown elsewhere on this page reads as a point on a trend rather than a permanent state.
COMPLIANCE
14/14 checks pass · grade Alast 402 captured 2026-08-12 · last up 2026-08-13
- 402 payload captured
- accepts[] array present
- payTo address recoverable
- payTo at accepts[0].payTo (conformant shape)
- payTo is a valid on-chain address
- atomic price declared
- atomic price in a sane range
- asset (token) address declared
- network resolves to CAIP-2
- payment scheme declared
- served over HTTPS
- declares the current x402 version (2)
- EIP-712 domain parameters present on every EVM entry
- x402 v2 envelope delivered in the payment-required header
SITE PILLARS
- homepage reachable
- openapi doc
- pricing page
- llms.txt
- robots.txt
- terms page
recent checks (18) live · click to expand
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